The SpaceX IPO: The Largest Listing in History?

What's Driving The Valuation, and What Pre-IPO Investors Should Think About

Every few years, a company comes along that forces investors to recalibrate their sense of scale. Saudi Aramco did it in 2019. Alibaba did it in 2014. And soon, SpaceX may do it during an IPO of a magnitude that we have never seen before. If the IPO proceeds as reported,SpaceX would be the largest public offering in history.

SpaceX is moving ahead with plans for a public offering to raise as much as $75 billion, targeting a valuationof $2 trillion— much higher than the record set by Saudi Aramco with its $1.7 trillion IPO valuation in 2019.

But the company preparing to go public in 2026 looks very different from the rocket company most investors picture when they hear the name. Let’s review what SpaceX actually does today, what's driving a valuation of this size, and what investors need to understand about the risks of investing in pre-IPOs or on opening day.

SpaceX: By The Numbers in 2026

SpaceX began as a launch vehicle business, and it remains the dominant private company for rockets. In 2025 alone, SpaceX launched its Falcon 9 rockets more than 160 times, accounting for over half of all orbital launches worldwide.

But rocket science and commercial launch services are no longer the company’s primary attraction. When it goes public, SpaceX will combine four different businesses: Falcon and Starship launch services, Starlink satellite internet, X (formerly Twitter), and xAI (including Grok).

In March 2025, xAI acquired X in a $33 billion all-stock deal, with Musk describing their futures as "intertwined." Then, in February 2026, SpaceX acquired xAI,consolidating both into a single entity ahead of a planned IPO.

The result is an IPO candidate spanning space infrastructure, global broadband, cutting-edge AI, and social media — all under one roof and one person.

Note: SpaceX has not yet filed apublic financial statement. Until an S-1 is filed with the SEC, all publiclyavailable financial figures are estimates derived from regulatory filings,secondary market data, and third-party analysis.

What's Driving The $1.5 Trillion Valuation

Starlink — SpaceX's satellite internetbusiness — is the financial engine behind the valuation and has been growing ata pace that is difficult to overstate:

●    Starlink serves over 10 million subscribers across 160+ countries.

●    They doubled their subscriber base in each of the past 2 years, from 2.3 million by EOY 2023 to 4.6 million by EOY 2024, and 9.2 million by EOY 2025.

●    Estimated 2025 revenue was $10.6 billion with a 54% EBITDA margin, accounting for around 67% of total company revenue.[1] 

●    SpaceX generated $16 billion inrevenue and $7.5 billion in EBITDA in 2025, with Starlink accounting for the majority of both.

For context, that margin is comparableto the best software businesses in the world, not aerospace manufacturers. It’sthe core reason SpaceX is being valued like a tech platform rather than a defense contractor.

At a $2 trillion valuation, none of this comes cheap. The company is expected to be marketed at 94x its 2025 revenue. Thatis an aggressive multiple by any measure. Yet both sum-of-the-parts and peer-comparison frameworks validate the IPO, provided Starship commercializes on or near its proposed timeline and at projected direct-to-cell scales.

The Upcoming IPO: What We Actually Know

SpaceX plans to float 3.3% of itsequity to raise $50 billion, making it the largest IPO in history, with proceeds earmarked for Starship scale-up, Starlink expansion, and the direct-to-cell constellation buildout. For reference, Saudi Aramco raised $29 billion in 2019.

A mid-June 2026 IPO has been widely rumored. Thats aid, SpaceX's CFO has reportedly told employees that whether the IPO happens remains uncertain. The company has historically been disciplined about not rushing to public markets before it’s ready.

What is clear is that the process is already underway. The company has entered a regulatory quiet period, internal share buybacks have priced stock at valuations consistent with the IPO target,and investment banks have begun preliminary conversations.

3 Key Takeaways for Interested Investors

1. Starlink is the thesis. Starship and xAI are long-term bets.

Investors who evaluate SpaceX through the lens of rockets or AI hype are missing the point. The Starlink satellite internet business — with its 54% EBITDA margin and rapidly growing global subscriber base — is a durable, near-term cash-generating engine. Starship's eventual commercialization, direct-to-cell, and AI data centers in space are genuine upside scenarios, but they are not what underpins the core investment thesis right now. Separating the different business arms matters when evaluating what you are actually paying for at IPO.

2. The price at IPO may already reflect most of the upside.

The $1.5 trillion valuation is defensible over a 5–7-year horizon, but returns are tied to execution milestones rather than near-term earnings growth — similar to how Tesla's stock moved on production milestones long before its fundamentals caught up. Investors who wait for the IPO will pay a public market price that already reflects optimism. Much of the early compounding has occurred in private markets, where investors with pre-IPO access have been riding valuations that are a fraction of today's asking prices. The risk/reward math at $1.5 trillion is different from $350 billion just 18 months ago.

3. Key-person structural risk cannot be priced away.

Musk's personal brand, operational oversight, and regulatory relationships are concentrated among four major companies — Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and X — yet there is no publicly availablesuccession plan for SpaceX. This is the single most significant governance risk for this potential IPO. Institutional investors will scrutinize it closely, so public market investors should too. A meaningful expansion of independent board members is widely expected ahead of any filing.

The Case for Pre-IPO Exposure— and Its Real Tradeoffs

By the time SpaceX rings the opening bell, the IPO price will reflect everything the market knows and expects.That's how public listings work. The more interesting question is whether there is a way to access SpaceX's equity before opening day.

Pre-IPO access to SpaceX does existtoday through secondary-market transactions, structured vehicles, and selectprivate-market platforms. But pre-IPOs in general come with tradeoffs thatinvestors must evaluate:

●    Illiquidity: Pre-IPO positions cannot be freely sold. Holding periods areuncertain and depend entirely on whether and when the IPO proceeds.

●    Valuation risk: The current private market valuation of approximately $1.25 trillion is aggressive. A delay in the IPO, a slowdown in Starlink's growth, ora broader market correction could reset it.

●    Limited information: Without public filings, all financial modeling is third-party estimation. You could be making a conviction bet with incomplete information.

●    Key-person exposure: All of the governance risks described above apply with equal force in private markets, and there is less liquidity to exit if they materialize.

●    Access restrictions: Pre-IPO investment in SpaceX is generally limited to accreditedinvestors and, in many cases, qualified purchasers. These restrictions exist for reasons directly connected to the complexity and risk involved.

The Best Way to Approach Pre-IPO Opportunities

Pre-IPO investing is not simply a matter of finding access — it's about finding the right access, through the right structure, with the right diligence behind it. HUDSONPOINT capital provides select clients with access to private-market opportunities typically unavailable to individual investors. Our approach includes:

●    Rigorous screening and due diligence on every opportunity we present

●    Pooled investment structures that open doors to otherwise inaccessible allocations

●    Risk-adjusted design that considers how a pre-IPO interacts with your holdings

●    Clear education and transparency around the specific risks of private securities

If you're interested in learning whether pre-IPO exposure to SpaceX or other private companies fits your broader investment strategy, our team is here to help.

Explore Our Pre-IPO Opportunities

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